1. Overview of the machine tool industry
1.1 Basic introduction of machine tool
Machine tool refers to equipment that can complete mechanical processing. According to the statistical caliber of China Machine Tool Industry Association, the machine tool industry is divided into metal cutting machine tools (turning, milling, planing, grinding machines, etc.), forming machine tools (forging, casting, stamping equipment), tools and accessories. The machine tools discussed in this article Only refers to metal cutting machine tools.
Machine tools can be divided into lathes, milling machines, planers, grinders, boring machines, drilling machines, etc. according to the processing functions; some machine tools with two functions at the same time, such as boring and milling machines. According to the position of the machine tool, it can be divided into vertical, horizontal, and gantry.
CNC machine tools are developed on ordinary machine tools, that is, the machine tool is equipped with a CNC system. CNC machine tool is the product of the combination of electronic information technology and traditional machining technology, and is the mainstream equipment of contemporary machinery manufacturing industry. Machining center refers to machine tool equipment that can continuously perform a variety of mechanical processing functions, including milling, boring, drilling, etc.
The machining center is a CNC machine tool with a high technical level.
1.2 Basic characteristics of the machine tool industry
1.2.1 The machine tool industry is a national strategic industry
The machine tool is the mother machine of the equipment manufacturing industry. It is a department that provides processing equipment to the traditional machinery industry, automobile industry, power equipment, railway locomotives, ships, defense industry, aerospace industry, electronic information technology industry and other processing industries. To revitalize the equipment manufacturing industry, we must first revitalize the machine tool industry.
The development level of a country’s machine tool industry is already an important indicator to measure today’s manufacturing level and industrial modernization, and it is also an important indicator to measure the country’s comprehensive competitiveness. Especially for the defense industry, the requirements for machine tools are very high. Complex, high-precision parts processing (such as aircraft engine blades, missile tail nozzles, etc.) must not be processed with multi-axis linkage, high-speed and high-precision CNC machine tools. Therefore, the machine tool industry is a national strategic industry.
1.2.2 CNC machine tools are technology-intensive products
The CNC machine tool is composed of a host, a CNC device, a drive device, an auxiliary device, and programming and other auxiliary equipment. It combines new technology achievements in many fields such as modern precision machinery, computers, automation, servo drives, hydropneumatics, precision measurement, and photoelectricity. The technology content is very high, which belongs to technology-intensive products.
2. General analysis of machine tool industry
2.1 Periodic analysis of machine tool industry
From the perspective of the industry life cycle, the ordinary machine tool industry has entered a mature period. The output of the machine tool industry keeps pace with the growth of downstream fixed asset investment, showing a clear cyclical trend.
For CNC machine tools, after going through the infancy in the 1990s, it entered a high-speed growth period. Compared with the United States, Germany and Japan, the numerical control rate of machine tools is still very low, and the trend of rapid growth will continue.
2.2 Growth analysis of machine tool industry
In the past 5 years, the machine tool industry has maintained an average growth rate of 28%. Since the second half of 2004, due to the impact of macro-control policies, the industry has slowed down. 2006 is the first year of the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan”. The industry’s production scale continued to expand. From January to June 2006, the total industrial output value increased by 29.41% year-on-year, and sales revenue increased by 30.52% year-on-year. The growth rate continued to maintain a high level of operation.
The growth rate of CNC machine tools is faster, and has maintained a growth rate of 35% in the past 5 years. my country is currently in the peak period of equipment replacement and the critical period of industrial industrial upgrading. The demand for CNC machine tools, especially high-end CNC machine tools, will still maintain a high growth level of more than 30%. It is expected that this growth rate will remain for 3-5 years.
2.3 Structural analysis of the machine tool industry
2.3.1 NC rate of machine tool
As CNC machine tools become the mainstream of machine manufacturing, the rate of CNC machine tools has become an important indicator of the development level of machine tools. Before 1990, my country mainly independently developed ordinary machine tools, but later introduced CNC technology from abroad to develop CNC machine tools, and the development was relatively backward. In recent years, with the support of the government, domestic machine tool companies have increased their independent innovation. CNC machine tools have developed rapidly, and high-end CNC machine tool products such as five-axis linkage machine tools and gantry machining centers have also been launched.
In recent years, the numerical control rate of my country’s machine tools has increased year by year. In 1990, the numerical control rate of China’s machine tool output was 2.24%, and it rose to 7.96% in 2000. In 2005, the numerical control rate of machine tool output reached a higher level of 13.23%; in terms of output value, the numerical control rate was 26.2% in 2001. It increased to 33% in 2003 and reached 41% in 2005.
2.3.2 Localization rate
Due to the relative backwardness of China’s CNC machine tools, China’s CNC machine tools mainly rely on imports. In 2005, the localization rate of China’s CNC machine tools was only 31%, of which the market share of high-end CNC machine tools’ domestic products was only about 4%. The localization of CNC systems The rate is less than 10%.
With the rise of my country’s large machine tool companies such as Shenyang Machine Tool Group, Dalian Machine Tool Group, Qinchuan Group, etc., my country’s CNC machine tool competitiveness will continue to increase, and market share will continue to increase.
3. Industrial policy analysis of machine tool industry
The Chinese government has always attached importance to the development of the machine tool industry. During the tenth five-year period, the Ministry of Science and Technology listed CNC machine tools as one of the three major focuses of manufacturing information engineering. In the 863 plan, it included “precision manufacturing and the application and demonstration of key CNC technology” and “NC Special arrangements have been made for key technologies and supporting technologies and applications for equipment industrialization.
The new government has paid more attention to the development of the equipment manufacturing industry. The machine tool industry as the “mother machine of the equipment manufacturing industry” has received great support from the government. Policy factors will be an important driving force for the future development of my country’s machine tool industry.
Recently, the National Promulgated Outline of the National Medium and Long-Term Scientific and Technical Development Plan (2006-2020), the Outline of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development, and Several Opinions of the State Council on Accelerating the Revitalization of the Equipment Manufacturing Industry , All regard CNC machine tools as the key development targets of China in the future, and the state will increase investment in key support.
At present, the government is formulating the “Special Plan for the Development of the CNC Machine Tool Industry”. Its central idea is to support the development of the CNC machine tool industry through finance, taxation, credit, etc., improve the research and development capabilities of the CNC machine tool, increase the domestic market share of the CNC machine tool, and increase the aerospace and defense The satisfaction of military and other manufacturing industries with high-performance CNC machine tools, thus achieving a strategic breakthrough in the CNC machine tool industry.
We anticipate that the “Special Plan for the Development of the swiss machining tool Industry” will be formally approved for implementation in 2007. A series of specific support policies will form a substantial benefit for the machine tool industry, and will include the following: New products developed and produced by enterprises in the CNC machine tool industrialization base And high-end CNC machine tool products are subject to the VAT refund policy; users purchase domestic CNC machine tools to implement consumer VAT; increase the pre-tax deduction for R&D investment in the machine tool industry, encourage enterprises to research and develop; cancel the tax exemption policy for foreign machine tool imports, and increase export machine tools Export tax rebate rate; encourage the ordering and use of the first domestic (set) CNC machine tools; the government supports domestic machine tools on major projects; establish a special fund for CNC machine tools for the technical development of CNC machine tools; The industrialization of key functional components supporting CNC machine tools; encouraging outstanding machine tool companies to go public and issuing corporate bonds to raise funds; the government promoting the restructuring, mergers and acquisitions of machine tool companies.
4. Demand analysis of machine tool industry
4.1 Downstream demand of machine tool industry
The consumption of the machine tool industry mainly comes from the downstream machinery industry. A large part of the fixed asset investment in the machinery industry is the purchase of machine tools. In terms of industry, the main needs of the machine tool industry come from the four major areas of automotive, general machinery, military industry and electronic information.
4.2 National revitalization of equipment manufacturing industry and international industrial transfer is the driving force for the long-term development of the machine tool industry
The demand for machine tools comes from the fixed asset investment in the downstream swiss cnc machining manufacturer industry. Since 2004, the rapid expansion of production capacity in the automotive and parts, construction machinery, mining equipment, power equipment, aerospace equipment, and shipping industries has driven the rapid growth of machine tool consumption. In 2004 and 2005, my country’s equipment and tool purchase investment growth rate was 33% and 31%, and the growth rate in the first three quarters of 2006 was 27%. Driven by the national revitalization of the equipment manufacturing industry and the transfer of international industries, the growth rate of my country’s equipment and tool purchase investment will remain at a level of 20-30% in the next 5-10 years, and the demand of the machine tool industry will continue to grow at a high speed.
4.2.1 National revitalization of equipment manufacturing industry
On June 28, 2006, the State Council issued several opinions on revitalizing the equipment manufacturing industry, which provided policy support for the future rise of my country’s equipment manufacturing industry.
In the next few years, the investment focus of China’s equipment manufacturing industry will focus on various industries such as aerospace, shipbuilding, railways, heavy metallurgy machinery, power generation equipment, and defense military industry. These industries are the key users of machine tools, providing good opportunities for the machine tool industry. Development Opportunities.
4.2.2 International industry transfer
At present, China is becoming a “world factory” to undertake the transfer of manufacturing industries around the world. With the continuous transfer of home appliances, electronic information, machinery, automobiles and parts to China, the demand for machine tools will maintain a high growth level.
5. Supply analysis of machine tool industry
5.1 Supply situation of machine tool industry in 2006
Since 2006, stimulated by the large-scale investment in the 11th Five-Year Plan, the growth rate of my country’s machine tool sales has accelerated from 15% in the first quarter to 30% in the third quarter. Due to the continuous upgrading of products and the improvement of the numerical control rate, the sales gross profit margin and sales growth rate of machine tool products are constantly rising, and the sales gross profit margin and sales net profit margin have reached 21% and 5%, respectively, at a high level.
5.2 Analysis of competition in the machine tool industry
There are currently 517 machine tool companies in my country, with low industry concentration and fierce competition. In 2005, my country produced a total of 470,700 machine tools, of which the top ten companies produced 191,500 units, with a market concentration of 42.48%.
In 2005, my country produced a total of 59,600 CNC machine tools, of which the top ten companies produced 27,300 units, with a market concentration of 45.85%.
With the development of CNC machine tools in the direction of large-scale and precision, the requirements for capital investment and R&D investment will continue to increase. On the one hand, small and medium-sized machine tool companies will be difficult to compete with large companies in terms of technology and marketing, and will face the situation of being eliminated; on the other hand, the industry leaders represented by Shenyang Machine Tool, Dalian Machine Tool, and Qinchuan Group have their own competitiveness Continuous improvement, with the support of the government, will accelerate the pace of merger and acquisition integration. Therefore, in the future, the machine tool industry will be concentrated to a few large enterprises, and the industry concentration will continue to increase.
5.3 Import and Export Analysis of Machine Tool Industry
Due to the relative backwardness of my country’s industry, a large number of my country’s machine tools have been imported. In recent years, the trade deficit of machine tools has been very large, reaching 5.7 billion US dollars in 2005.
With the increase in the export of domestic low-end machine tools and the import substitution of high-end machine tools, the growth rate of the trade deficit is slowing down, and 2005 is basically the same as 2004. In the first half of 2006, my country’s machine tool industry accumulated a total of 6.564 billion US dollars of imports and exports, an increase of 9.34% year-on-year, and the deficit amount was 3.624 billion US dollars, a decrease of 1.701 billion US dollars from the same period last year. This is the first time that my country’s machine tool imports and exports have decreased. We expect that by about 2012, my country’s machine tool industry will achieve import and export balance.
6. Import substitution of future development trend of machine tool industry
6.1 The gap between my country’s machine tool industry and developed countries is obvious
Compared with the machine tool developed countries such as the United States, Germany and Japan, due to the gap in core R&D capabilities, my country’s CNC machine tool products have a large gap in design level, quality, accuracy and performance. Overall, the difference between my country’s CNC machine tools and foreign advanced 5-10 years.
In terms of performance and accuracy, domestically-made CNC lathes are mainly economical CNC lathes. The rotation speed is generally 2000 rpm, and the coordinate positioning accuracy is generally 0.01 mm. This is in line with the internationally advanced 6000-8000 rpm and 0.8 microns. The accuracy differs greatly.
In terms of functional components, the gap between my country and developed countries is even greater. In terms of core components such as advanced CNC systems, high-speed precision spindle units, high-speed rolling parts and CNC power tool holders, my country is still unable to localize and mainly depends on imports.
6.2 Import and replacement potential of high-end CNC machine tools is huge
According to the objectives of the “Special Planning for the Development of CNC Machine Tool Industry”, by 2010, domestic CNC machine tools accounted for more than 50% of the domestic market demand, domestic CNC machine tools used more than 60% of domestic functional components, and CNC systems with independent intellectual property rights accounted for CNC machine tools. More than 75% of the total output, there is huge room for import substitution of domestic CNC machine tools. Through independent innovation and acquisition of foreign machine tool companies, the technical level of my country’s machine tool industry will be further improved, and the trend of import substitution will become more and more obvious. This trend of import substitution can be seen from the slowdown in the deficit growth rate of imports and exports in my country’s machine tool industry.
6.2.1 Independent innovation will narrow the gap with foreign machine tool technology
Although there is a large gap between my country’s machine tool level and foreign countries, with the improvement of my country’s machine tool research and development level, this gap is narrowing.
During the “Tenth Five-Year Plan” period, the state arranged special projects for CNC machine tools in the 863 plan, and completed the development of 20 high-tech and sophisticated large-scale CNC equipment with high technical difficulties, high import prices, or foreign restrictions on China’s imports. Significant breakthroughs have been made in the research of machine tool key technologies, which has greatly reduced the gap with foreign countries.
At present, China has been able to produce high-speed, high-precision, compound, multi-axis linkage CNC machine tools that are urgently needed by the aerospace industry, shipbuilding industry and defense industry, such as: high-speed machining center, five-axis linkage gantry machining center, five-axis linkage turning and milling compound Center, five-axis five-sided machining center, etc. The acceptance of domestic swiss CNC machine tools is increasing. With the auto industry’s recognition of domestic high-end CNC machine tools, the localization rate of machine tool equipment will be greatly improved.
6.2.2 Cross-border M&A will improve
The technical level of China’s machine tool industry In recent years, with the enhancement of the competitiveness of China’s machine tool companies, domestic machine tool groups represented by Dalian Machine Tool and Shenyang Machine Tool have gone abroad to carry out cross-border mergers and acquisitions, acquiring Germany, the United States, Japan and other countries. Well-known machine tool company.
Although the country where the merged enterprise is located prohibits the export of core machine tool manufacturing technology to foreign countries, which prevents Chinese companies from directly acquiring core technology, the technical level of machine tool manufacturing will still be greatly improved through personnel exchanges and cooperative development. And with the improvement of my country’s domestic five-axis linkage machine tools, high-speed machining centers and other technologies, developed countries will relax my country’s technical restrictions in the field of machine tools, my country and CNC machine tool technology will develop simultaneously with the world.