Through the investigation, the application field of titanium is gradually expanding. Although the demand for rigidity is not large, the fact that the rigidity of demand has grown already exists. The proportion of titanium used in chemical industry is decreasing, but the proportion of aviation, nautical, military and civilian use is increasing. On May 20, Baoji Titanium Titanium’s rise of 10% is a manifestation of downstream demand. Upstream raw materials are rising, downstream titanium materials are rising, and the price increase of midstream sponge titanium is naturally logical.
The turbulent international environment and the increase in titanium for military use will also become the norm. The mysterious celestial phenomenon that appeared in early June, the Rocket Army and the People ’s Navy echoed and joined the interaction, which tells us that the titanium needs in other fields already exist. Yesterday, an old leader of the former China Rare Earth Group left a message on the reporter’s WeChat: To fight, titanium prices will rise!
Why do you say that 75,000 yuan / ton of sponge titanium is the price axis in 2020, the transaction line is downward, and the quotation line is upward, the main reasons are reflected in the following aspects:
First, the production of sponge titanium enterprises has already increased. For example, the output of Zunyi Titanium Industry this year is significantly higher than that of the previous year. Panzhihua Iron and Steel and Shuangrui Wanji continue to implement the production increase plan in the first and second positions. Shuangrui Wanji and Pangang Sponge Titanium also have the advantages of the whole process. Several private enterprises in the north are more profitable than state-owned enterprises at current prices, and the desire to naturally expand production is also very strong. When the expansion of production becomes a reality, the room for the price of sponge titanium to rise is blocked.
The second is that Xinjiang Hami and Baililian acquired Yunnan Xinli and Jinchuan Titanium Sponge Titanium, which are in production or resumption of production. At present, the sponge titanium projects of these three companies have no impact on the entire market. Their titanium sponge products have to enter the market and squeeze the existing market, at least in 2019 is still difficult. However, if the price of sponge titanium rises too fast and is profitable, it is possible to stimulate three companies to accelerate their investment in the organization of sponge titanium production. At this time, the sponge titanium of the three companies will affect the market. Therefore, the price of sponge titanium will naturally fluctuate around 75,000 yuan / ton this year.
Sponge titanium and titanium ingots are strategic materials, and the country has collected tens of thousands of tons. If the prices of titanium sponge and titanium continue to rise, the country will use reserve products to stabilize the market. Moreover, some reserves of sponge titanium have declined in quality over time, and they need to be placed on the market when the price is good, waiting for the price to be restocked, which can adjust the market price and reserve high-quality sponge titanium products. Therefore, the sponge titanium has little room to rise.
The fanaticism of titanium is gone forever. At the beginning of this world, titanium sponge increased from more than 40,000 yuan per ton to 2300,000 yuan per ton, because the annual output was only about 2,000 tons at that time, and the market demand was 10,000 tons. No city. It is different now. The actual output is more than 35 times that of the original. There is still more than 50,000 tons of production capacity not released, which restricts the room for prices to rise further.
Based on the above reasons, it is recommended that the existing sponge titanium enterprises raise prices slowly! Expansion is easy! Want to start a company that produces sponge titanium, take it easy! Don’t raise the price for a while, and expand the production capacity for a while, causing the market to be full and surplus, so that the titanium market price that just got better in 2018 and 2019 will enter the winter in 2020. The last round of the market did not last for several years, but the cold winter lasted for 10 years. It is advisable to warn price increases, to expand production carefully, and not to “repeat yesterday’s story”.